Brewers World Series: Warmer Milwaukee temperatures impact on game

MILWAUKEE - The Milwaukee Brewers will do everything they can on the field to win the World Series, but could what happens above the field influence who wins and loses?

Home run science

How it works:

Warmer air is less dense than cooler air. That means there's less aerodynamic drag on a baseball, allowing a well-hit ball to travel farther.

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A 2023 scientific study by the American Meteorological Society found that just a 1.8-degree increase in game day temperatures compared to seasonal averages produces roughly a 2% increase in home runs per game at open-air stadiums.

Of course, temperature isn't the only factor influencing home runs. Player strength, equipment, training, hitting strategies and even the baseball itself all play important roles. While all of those things can be addressed through training, practice and planning, the weather is beyond the control of even the great Pat Murphy! 

Temperature is only part of the equation. Wind direction and speed can make a big difference in how far a baseball travels. A breeze blowing toward the outfield can help carry a deep fly ball, while a headwind can turn a potential home run into a routine out.

Milwaukee temperature

By the numbers:

According to an analysis from Climate Central, average temperatures during baseball season have increased by 2.8 degrees across the 26 warming Major League Baseball cities since 1970. And Milwaukee is among the top 10 cities experiencing the biggest changes. 

Between 1970 and 2024, Milwaukee's average temperature during baseball season increased by 3.6 degrees, tying the city for fourth place nationally. That puts the home of the Milwaukee Brewers alongside Cleveland, Detroit and St. Louis, all experiencing similar warming trends.

Milwaukee forecast

Local perspective:

Wisconsin is enjoying the kind of conditions that would make just about any hitter happy.

The FOX6 Weather Experts expect Milwaukee to have highs in the low 70s for Friday and Saturday, with mostly clear skies and generally light winds. That's pretty comfortable weather for late October. The average highs range from the mid to upper 50s.

Because Game1 and Game 2 of the World Series have evening start times, temperatures will cool from the daytime high. However, first pitch temperatures will be near or above the average high for the date, making for a relatively warm October evening.

This week's forecast features light southwest winds Wednesday, with a possible lake breeze shifting winds toward the south-southeast near Lake Michigan. Southeasterly winds are expected Friday, followed by a stronger southerly breeze Saturday. Those shifting winds could influence the flight of a baseball, since at American Family Field, home plate faces the north-west and the defending player at center field faces south-east. 

Looking ahead for Milwaukee, the milder October weather won't last forever. A cold front is expected to arrive late Sunday into Monday and temperatures could fall into the 50s early next week.

American Family Field 

Dig deeper:

American Family Field is well known for having a retractable roof, allowing games to be played in more controlled atmospheric conditions.  When the roof is closed, outside temperature and wind have less direct influence on the baseball's flight. However, even with the roof closed, temperature and air density come into play.  

When the roof is closed, a small number of heaters and the trapped body heat of the crowd generally keep the interior roughly 15 to 30 degrees warmer than the outside air depending on forecast conditions, according to Johnson Controls, who partner with the Brewers to manage the automation and fan comfort systems. 

Whether it's natural atmospheric or man-made conditions, the physics of warmer air being less dense and assisting the hitter hold true. American Family Field was originally built as an open-air/convertible ballpark rather than a climate-controlled indoor arena and does not yet have a comprehensive heating system. Meanwhile, Tropicana Field, where the Tampa Bay Rays play, is a fully climate-controlled and domed stadium.

Will weather matter?

The Bottom Line:

While the impact that warmer, less dense air has on home runs remains relatively small, it may just be the slight edge the team needs to take home the win. So whether you're watching the Brewers at American Family Field or playing a weekend game at your neighborhood diamond, remember that a great swing isn't always the only thing sending a baseball over the fence.

Sometimes the weather deserves an RBI, too.

Brewers World Series coverage

Dig deeper:

FOX6 News has shared stories throughout the Milwaukee Brewers' postseason run. Follow the links below to read and watch more coverage of the Crew, and find complete coverage of the team here or on our YouTube channel.

• 1982 Brewers reflect on pennant, this year's Crew
• Young Brewers fan surprised with World Series tickets
• Find Brewers watch parties in your area
• Will American Family Field's roof be open or closed for the World Series?
• 'This is our moment:' Brewers share message from Uecker family ahead of World Series