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Riding the 'solar coaster;' homeowners rush to get expiring tax credits
The residential solar industry is currently riding the ups and downs of policy changes. Those in Wisconsin's solar industry say work is booming. Next year, there will be challenges.
MILWAUKEE - The residential solar industry is currently riding the ups and downs of policy changes. Those in Wisconsin's solar industry say work is booming. Next year, there will be challenges.
Tax credit to end
What we know:
Contact 6 visited Arch Solar in Mequon in early September, where it installed 31 solar panels at one house over two days.
The panels' new owners will get a 30% federal income tax credit on the installation, saving them thousands of dollars. For decades, the incentive has been a big part of the residential solar energy sales pitch in some form or another.
The 'One Big Beautiful Bill' will eliminate the tax credit on Dec. 31.
Huge demand
Dig deeper:
The approaching deadline has prompted a 'hurry up and buy' mentality.
"We had to stop all of our sales processes," said Mike Cornell, Chief Instigation Officer for Arch Solar. "As have most of the (solar installation) companies."
Mike Cornell
RENEW Wisconsin, a nonprofit that promotes renewable energy, confirms other solar contractors are seeing huge demand, too.
"More than people can keep up with," said Ismaeel Chartier, Director of Impact and Innovation for RENEW Wisconsin. "The issue is going to be getting it all finished before 12/31."
Drop in sales
By the numbers:
Chartier says RENEW Wisconsin expects this sales boon will be followed by a 30% decline in residential solar installations.
"Everyone is expecting a big dip," said Chartier. "We'll probably see a lot of consolidation of solar companies. We'll most likely see a lot of layoffs in the workforce."
Ismaeel Chartier
Cornell says Arch Solar plans to keep its crews busy with commercial work.
"Fingers crossed we will not lose a single soul. That's our goal," said Cornell.
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The commercial solar tax credit is still 30% for projects that break ground before July 4, 2026, or are placed in service by the end of 2027.
"We just wait for things to change and sooner or later they will," said Cornell. "In the meantime, we hunker down."
The number of We Energies solar connections rose 190% from 2020 to 2023, before declining 13% in 2024. As of Sept. 1, 2025, the utility says it connected 783 systems.
Those in the industry say that number will, no doubt, grow by the end of the year.
Rush to the finish
What we know:
At the Mequon site, Cornell told Contact 6 Arch Solar was extending its work week to finish 100 projects by the end of 2025.
"We're gonna be working Saturdays," said Cornell. "The guys are all in."
Does Cornell think there's any bright news for the solar industry in 2026 and beyond?
What's next:
"I think the good news is the domestic manufacturing is going to take place this year," said Cornell. "Four companies are going to build solar cells in the United States, which has not happened yet."
Cornell believes that transition could "raise the bar for quality across the U.S."
Chartier agrees the industry may eventually see panels and inverters decrease in cost. He thinks the industry is at least five years away from having a strong manufacturing base.
"Having them all produced here could possibly be cheaper," said Chartier. "Keeping up with demand is going to be hard."
The solar sales pitch
What they're saying:
Both men say with utility rates rising, there's still financial benefit to residential solar.
"I think solar is here to stay," said Chartier. "The return on investment is still strong."
Cornell says that solar panels have also become less expensive.
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"Solar today is probably about 75% less than it was 20 years ago," said Cornell. "The economic benefit is still going to be there. It's just not as good as it was with the 30% tax credit."
Over the years, solar tax credits in the U.S. have expired and been revived before. Companies like Arch Solar say they're accustomed to weathering the political currents.
"We call it the "solar coaster," said Cornell. "You just hang on for the ride."
Consumer warning
What you can do:
If you plan to install solar panels in 2025, remember that local inspectors and utilities need time to review and connect the system. That process can take weeks.
The Source: Information for this report comes from Arch Solar, RENEW Wisconsin, We Energies and IRS.gov.