New MU Law Poll: 48% will vote for Biden, 43% for President Trump

The latest Marquette University Law School Poll released on Wednesday, Oct. 28 shows Joe Biden is the choice for president of 48% of likely Wisconsin voters, Donald Trump is the choice of 43%. Libertarian Jo Jorgensen supported by 2%, and 8% gave no choice.

There has been little change in overall results from most recent Marquette poll, Sept. 30 to Oct. 4, when it was Biden 47% and Trump 42%. In early September, it was Biden 48%, Trump 44%. Changes in recent polls have all been within the margin of error.

Among Republicans, 7% support Biden, 86% support Trump. Among Democrats, 3% support Trump, 92% support Biden. Among independents, it’s Biden 36%, Trump 28%, 24% for Jorgensen.

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Different assumptions about voter turnout and what undecided voters will do bring slightly different results, with Biden still leading in each scenario that was examined.

Among all registered voters in the poll (that is, assuming a large turnout), the result is Biden 47% and Trump 43%. In model assuming lower turnout (some likely voters don’t vote), it is Biden 48% and Trump 45%.

Among Republicans, 61% are very or somewhat confident that votes will be counted accurately, 37% not too confident or not at all confident. Among Democrats, 82% are very or somewhat confident in an accurate count, 18% not too or not at all confident.

Among those who have already voted, 64% say they voted for Biden, 25% for Trump, 2% for Jorgensen, 9% did not say.