Wisconsin weather: Tornado alley expands impacting Badger State
Annual probability of a tornado from 1994-2024. 30-year climate data.
MILWAUKEE - Tornado Alley has been expanding eastward as climate data shows the increased activity in tornadoes, damaging winds, and hail events.
The National Centers for Environmental Information (NCEI) and Storm Prediction Center (SPC) released the probability of these events occurring within 25 miles of any location based on historical data.
Changes in Tornado Alley
What we know:
Annual probability of a tornado from 1955-2024. 70-year climate data.
Tornado Alley was originally known as a concentrated area across the Great Plains including parts of the Dakotas, Nebraska, Kansas, Oklahoma, and Texas. New tornado data shows that a much larger portion of the United States is now included in tornado alley compared to before. Higher probability areas show where tornadoes have been more consistent over time.
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It is fair to say that tornado alley is expanded eastward based on climate data. Darker areas on the maps above show where there is more likelihood for tornadoes to occur, but the darker color has shifted. New locations include central and eastern portions of the United States, with some of the higher probability areas including the Mississippi and Ohio River Valleys.
What does this mean for Wisconsin?
By the numbers:
Over a 30-year climate period, data shows a 70% to 80% probability of any tornado in Wisconsin has shifted slightly southwest. However, over the past frequency of weaker tornadoes has slightly increased.
The chance for severe winds (60mph or greater) has moderately increased, with 70% to 80% probability in southwestern Wisconsin, and 50% to 60% probability in southeastern Wisconsin. The chance for hail greater than or equal to half an inch has significantly increased 80% to 90%.
Each severe weather season is different based on a variety of factors. However, climatology data helps meteorologists recognize patterns to adapt, understand, and prepare for severe weather events.
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The overall trend will be more frequent storm system that can bring southern Wisconsin more frequent but weaker tornadoes, hail, and damaging wind events. Keep in mind that severe weather can happen at any time of the year—even the winter months.
The Source: The information provided in this story is from the National Centers for Environmental Information, Storm Prediction Center, and FOX6 Weather Experts.