Severe weather threat Thursday: Tornadoes and damaging wind likely

MILWAUKEE - Confidence continues to increase that portions of southern Wisconsin could see significant severe weather later today, including the potential for tornadoes, damaging winds, large hail, and localized flash flooding.

The Storm Prediction Center has maintained an Enhanced Risk (Level 3 of 5) for severe thunderstorms across southern Wisconsin, putting us right in the heart of a corridor where a few storms could become particularly dangerous this afternoon and evening.

What we know:

The Wisconsin Weather Experts are growing increasingly concerned about the possibility of discrete supercells capable of producing tornadoes before storms evolve into larger clusters capable of widespread damaging winds.

Southern Wisconsin is expected to sit near a northward-lifting warm front this afternoon. That boundary could become the focal point for explosive thunderstorm development.

Atmospheric conditions will feature:

• Strong instability, particularly near the Illinois border
• A powerful 50 mph low-level jet transporting warm, humid air northward
• Exceptional wind shear through the atmosphere, supportive of rotating thunderstorms

Those ingredients support the potential for supercells capable of producing all severe weather hazards.

Timeline:

Initially, storms may remain discrete and rotating, increasing the risk for tornadoes and large hail. As storms merge, the threat could transition toward widespread damaging winds with gusts potentially exceeding 70 mph.

Dig deeper:

Flash Flooding Also Possible

Repeated storms moving across the same locations could produce localized flooding, particularly in urban areas where drainage systems may become overwhelmed.

While flooding is not expected to be the primary hazard, forecasters say it remains a concern where multiple rounds of storms occur.

What you can do:

Thursday's setup has the potential to produce more than just a typical summer thunderstorm outbreak. Southern Wisconsin sits near several important atmospheric boundaries that could act as launching pads for rotating storms capable of producing tornadoes.

The exact placement of those boundaries will determine where the greatest tornado threat develops, but everyone across southern Wisconsin should remain weather-aware this afternoon and evening. Make sure you have multiple ways to receive warnings and be prepared to move to shelter quickly if severe weather approaches.

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