Wisconsin governor race; Rodriguez leads Democratic straw poll

MILWAUKEE - The Wisconsin primary is less than two months away, and Democrats still have a large field of seven candidates running for governor.

Rodriguez leads straw poll

By the numbers:

A new straw poll is giving some early insight into the race.

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The WisPolitics straw poll was held at the Wisconsin Democratic Convention in Madison, which was attended by Democratic Party insiders and activists. Just shy of 600 delegates and guests voted.

The poll found Lt. Gov. Sara Rodriguez in first place with 27%. State Rep. Francesca Hong of Madison finished second with 23%, followed by state Sen. Kelda Roys of Madison with 19%.

Milwaukee County Executive David Crowley received 13%. All other candidates received single digits, and former Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes finished sixth.

Strategists urge caution

What they're saying:

In 2018, the WisPolitics straw poll did not pick now-Gov. Tony Evers. Evers went on to win the Democratic primary.

"Smart candidates are always reassessing and assessing the world. I have been on gubernatorial campaigns, and they always view state conventions as a really key marker in time," Democratic strategist Joe Zepecki said.

Zepecki said the convention crowd is not necessarily representative of the broader electorate.

"I think when you look at the insider opinions about this race. The 1,000 people or so who make up the backbone of the Democratic Party, who knock on the doors, who staff those county party offices, they're not representative of the broader public, and one of the ways they're least representative is how much news and information and time they spend thinking about good campaigns, bad campaigns, what campaign is up, what campaign is down, and so I think there are quite a few people out of the 1,000 who voted in the straw poll, who would have done things differently in 2022," he said. "I don't think that means that the half a million people who vote in the primary in August are really thinking about 2022. Voters in this primary are thinking about why can't I afford to vote, why are my utility bills and my gas bills so high, Washington isn't doing anything for us. Can we look to a state leadership to do something that's ultimately what this election is going to be about."

Political strategists said the straw poll numbers should not be overinterpreted.

"The folks who go to your Democratic or Republican State convention are your most engaged, most informed, most active voters out there," Republican strategist Mark Graul said. "They don't represent how most people view politics. Most Wisconsinites weren't at either Republican or Democratic state conventions."

Candidates face August primary

Dig deeper:

The convention is seen as an important testing ground and a chance for candidates to break through with party insiders.

"Straw polls are really interesting for insiders, and we have to take them with a grain of salt. Sarah Rodriguez, a Waukesha Democrat, going into Madison, home of two of her other candidates, Kelda Roys and Fran Hong, and winning. That's a nice feather for her cap," Zepecki said. "She clearly is building a statewide coalition."

As for whether it is time for the other candidates to drop out, Zepecki said not yet.

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"I don't think so," he said. "I think that day is fast approaching, where some of these candidates need to take a long hard look in the mirror and determine whether there's actually a path or if the role they have to play is to help make one of those leading three candidates the nominee.

Mordecai Lee, a University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee professor emeritus, said candidates can be reluctant to accept difficult realities in a campaign.

"As you could imagine, political candidates have big egos. They don’t like reality checks," Lee said. "They always in their minds see some fantasy result of how they pull it out of nowhere, and they win."

Could the field shrink?

Big picture view:

Lee said some candidates may eventually decide dropping out is better than risking a poor showing.

"Sooner or later, somebody’s going to say: I want to protect my standing, I don’t want to go all the way into the primary and get wiped out with 2% of the vote and then I’ll never have a political future," he said. "Maybe it’s better that instead of staying in, I drop out."

The state party does not endorse a candidate. Still, the straw poll could give some momentum to Rodriguez as the race continues.

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