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MILWAUKEE - Southeast Wisconsin will be dry most of Friday night with severe thunderstorms possible after 11 p.m. and continuing until 3 a.m. Threats include strong winds and a few tornadoes.
Severe weather threat
Dig deeper:
Several rounds of heavier rain can be expected as moisture levels climb. Precipitable water values (the total atmospheric water vapor in a vertical column) are near 1.3 inches – a moderate-to-high reading that represents ample fuel for storms and downpours.
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Because the ground remains frozen in many areas, rainfall will run off quickly and could lead to localized urban and small stream flooding. A temporary lull in the activity is possible on Friday night before the next round of storms develops.
Overnight Friday, a line of stronger storms will organize along a developing low pressure system near the Mississippi River. Forecast models suggest a fast moving line of storms could sweep across southern Wisconsin late between 11 p.m. and 3 a.m.
With strong wind shear and increasing instability in place, a few storms may become severe with damaging winds the primary threat, along with the possibility of isolated tornadoes.
Saturday cold front
Dig deeper:
A cold front trailing the storm system is expected to sweep through Wisconsin early Saturday morning. Rain will gradually end behind the front as the system moves toward the Great Lakes and eastern Canada.
Despite the frontal passage, temperatures will remain relatively mild for early March with southwest winds returning Sunday and early next week.
Higher risk farther south
Big picture view:
The same system is expected to produce significant severe weather across parts of the central U.S.
The Storm Prediction Center has placed parts of the southern and central Plains in the lower to mid-Missouri Valley under an enhanced risk for severe storms on Friday and Friday night. Storms there have a higher chance of producing large hail, damaging winds and tornadoes.
A powerful mid-level jet and strong wind shear will create favorable conditions for severe storms across that region during the afternoon and evening.
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FOX6 Weather Extras
Local perspective:
Meanwhile, FOX6Now.com offers a variety of extremely useful weather tools to help you navigate the stormy season. They include the following:
FOX6 Storm Center app
FOX LOCAL Mobile app
FOX Weather app
What is the FOX Model?
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What is the FOX Model?
FOX Weather Expert Tom Wachs explains the value of the FOX Model for our team -- and our viewers.
FOX Weather
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Maps and radar
We have a host of maps and radars on the FOX6 Weather page that are updating regularly — to provide you the most accurate assessment of the weather. From a county-by-county view to the Midwest regional radar and a national view — it’s all there.
School and business closings
When the weather gets a little dicey, schools and businesses may shut down. Monitor the latest list of closings, cancellations, and delays reported in southeast Wisconsin.
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The Source: Information in this story is from the FOX6 Weather Experts, National Weather Service and NOAA Storm Prediction Center.