MILWAUKEE - With warmer-than-average conditions continuing to be favored as we start fall 2023, it begs the question will summer ever come to an end?
Sadly, it always does, but this is a great opportunity to distinguish short-term weather patterns and how long-term outlooks are generated.
In the short term, yes, just about the entire Great Lakes will be staying warmer than average the first couple weeks of October. During this time Milwaukee's average high is in the mid 60s and with well above-average temperatures favored then 80s won't be out of the question. But how long can this last? The latest 80°F day on record was on Oct. 31, but mild conditions happen quite often leading up to winter historically.
8-14 Day Temp Outlook from Oct. 4 through Oct. 10
Looking at longer-term forecasts such as a seasonal outlook by the Climate Prediction Center, fall 2023 is looking to be quite average when it comes to temperature. With an equal chance for above and below-average conditions. These long-term forecasts use broader weather patterns such as Pacific Ocean temperatures and climate data to come up with in-depth long-term analysis.
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Fall Temperature Outlook 2023
Pacific Ocean temperatures in 2023 according to the National Weather Service have a strong trend towards entering an El Niño by winter. This generally leads to a warmer and dryer Winter in Wisconsin historically when mapped out and compared to past years with similar temperature profiles in the ocean.
While no long-term forecast is exactly right it does give reference points and trends that can be expected in similar situations.