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Wisconsin Legislature control up for grabs
With control of the state's future on the ballot, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Wisconsin Legislature.
MILWAUKEE - With control of the state's future on the ballot, voters will decide whether Democrats or Republicans control the Wisconsin Legislature in less than a month.
Control of Wisconsin Legislature
Why you should care:
Big issues run through the Wisconsin Legislature, including how to spend your tax money and how much to charge you in taxes. It also writes laws that impact life across the state, including on schools, policing, abortion, marijuana and guns.
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The backstory:
Republicans have controlled the Legislature since 2011, and they even had a supermajority of the State Senate and were close to that in the State Assembly. But in 2024, the Wisconsin Supreme Court, under liberal control, ruled against district maps that favored Republicans.
"If you go back and look before the new maps, there would be cycles where there were maybe two battleground seats in the whole state," said Marquette Law School Lubar Center researcher John Johnson. "Now, there's nine that I'm really interested in the Assembly, but there's even more that'll be worth checking to make sure nothing crazy happened in. So yeah, it's a competitive map in regions all around the state."
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What's on the ballot
By the numbers:
All 99 State Assembly seats are on the ballot, and half of the State Senate seats are up for election. Johnson found that former Vice President Kamala Harris won the majority of the State Senate districts, while President Trump won the majority of the State Assembly districts, as did Sen. Tammy Baldwin, in 2024.
Half of the Wisconsin Senate seats were on the ballot in 2024 and the other half will be up for election this fall. The senate GOP now holds 18 of 33 seats, while Democrats hold 15.
This November, Democrats need to flip just two GOP senate seats to win control. In two local districts, the incumbent Republicans aren’t seeking reelection in districts that have been going for Democrats in recent top-of-the-ticket races.
Wisconsin referendums, voters to decide constitutional amendments
Wisconsin voters are currently deciding whether to change Wisconsin's Constitution on issues touching on religion, taxes and race. Three statewide referendums are on the November ballot.
Very competitive races in southeast Wisconsin
Local perspective:
There are two Wisconsin Senate districts and two Wisconsin Assembly districts that are particularly competitive in south-east Wisconsin.
21st Senate District
The 21st Senate District includes Greenfield, Hales Corners, Greendale, Franklin, Raymond, Caledonia and Racine. Incumbent Republican Sen. Van Wanggaard isn’t seeking reelection in this district that Kamala Harris won in 2024. This year’s matchup pits Republican Jim Croft versus Democrat Travor Jung.
5th Senate District
Republican Rob Hutton is not seeking reelection in the state 5th Senate District, which includes Pewaukee, Brookfield, Elm Groove, Wauwatosa and West Allis. In 2024, Kamala Harris won nearly 52% of this district. Democrat Robyn Vinning will face Republican Mike Roberts.
61st Assembly District
Of the nine assembly seats that will make or break who wins the majority, Johnson said three he considers lean Republican, three lean Democratic and three are genuine toss-up seats, including the 61st Assembly district in suburban Greendale and Hales Corners, represented by Republican Bob Donovan in a district Kamala Harris won by roughly 2.2%.
"In the state assembly, it might come down to if Bob Donovan can hang on again. Bob Donovan has been the white whale for Democrats trying to win seats in the State Assembly. He runs so much stronger than other Republicans," Johnson said. "He faced a huge spending deficit in his last two campaigns. Democrats poured tons into supporting their candidate, LuAnn Bird, running against him, and he just continued to post these huge advantages over Donald Trump and other Republicans in his district. If he can do that again, he might be the person who keeps the Assembly red."
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This year, Donovan will face Democratic challenger Ben Brist. Johnson said incumbency tends to add several points to a candidate’s margin.
"An Assembly district has about 60,000 people in it, and of the ones who actually vote, that's a smaller number. So, it's possible for a long-serving incumbent legislator to actually know, to have a personal connection to a lot of people in the district," added Johnson.
21st Assembly District
Another Assembly district to watch is the 21st, which includes Oak Creek and parts of Milwaukee. Republican State Rep. Jessie Rodriguez is not seeking reelection. Kamala Harris won 50.7% and Sen. Tammy Baldwin won 52% of the district in 2024.
"I think Jesse Rodriguez not seeking reelection was probably the biggest blow to Republicans, because that 21st district, Oak Creek, the southern part of the city of Milwaukee that she represented, had really trended towards Democrats, but she had this ability to overperform other Republicans and keep that seat red. Without her on the ticket, I think it leans Democratic," said Johnson.
This year, Democrat Dan Bukiewicz will face Republican Dylan Pfaffenback.
The Source: Information in this story was gathered from 2024 election results, district level results found through Dave’s Redistricting, as well as the work of Marquette researcher John Johnson.