MILWAUKEE - Milwaukee and southeast Wisconsin have had zero snow so far this season. That means there is already a deficit growing by just over half an inch.
The lack of snow is not unusual given the well above average fall temperatures that have been around. When do we typically experience snow?
First trace of snow
By the numbers:
On average, Milwaukee experiences the first trace of snow on Nov. 2, with the average first tenth of an inch on Nov. 14. However, the latest Milwaukee has ever experienced these minor accumulation amounts has been as late as December.
With El Niño present creating warmer temperatures, this shifts the chances of snow further into the season already. However, there is a small chance we could see snowflakes this week.
Chances of snow this week
The breakdown:
The best chances to see snowflakes from the sky would be on Thursday night when the winds change out of the north and the cold air moves in.
This will be driven by a low-pressure system moving towards the East Coast. Depending on certain variables, Lake Effect precipitation is possible for states surrounding Lake Michigan.
Different scenarios can occur
What we know:
Since we are still several days out, forecasters see the potential for this to occur, but the fine details still need to be ironed out to determine if snow is even possible.
The wind direction, location of the low-pressure system, and available moisture in the atmosphere are crucial drivers of the outcome.
Scenario 1:
If the low-pressure system is slightly further east, winds will shift out of the north northwest around the backside of the low. Colder air will move over Lake Michigan, potentially creating lake effect precipitation (rain and/or snow) that will shift over the lake and towards Michigan. This would lower the chances of Milwaukee seeing snowflakes.
Scenario 2:
If the low-pressure system is slightly further west, winds will shift out of the northeast around the backside of the low. Colder air will move over Lake Michigan, potentially creating lake effect precipitation (rain and/or snow) that will shift over the lake and towards Wisconsin. This would increase the chances of Milwaukee seeing snowflakes.
Scenario 3:
If the low-pressure system moves more quickly and is significantly further east, the winds will still be out of a northerly direction with cold air moving over Lake Michigan, but there will be limited to no moisture available locally. This would mean that there would be zero lake effect precipitation (rain and/or snow).
So, yes, there is still the potential for southeast Wisconsin to experience the first few flakes of the season, but even if we do, there will be no accumulation and no impacts expected.
Widespread impacts in Wisconsin
By the numbers:
The bigger impact will be the below-average temperatures moving in and the strong winds. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday look to only reach the lower 40s.
The winds will be very strong out of a northerly direction, gusting 20 to 40 miles per hour at times!
As Wisconsinites, we know that cold air plus strong winds means that the temperatures will feel a lot colder than what the thermometer shows outside.
Winds this strong will make wind chills feel like the 20s during the mornings and evening and the low 30s during the day.
Get ready for winter-like weather on the way. Layers, winter coats, hats, gloves, and scarves will be needed later this week.
The Source: Information in this story is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration and the FOX6 Weather Experts.