It is officially November and that means holiday music playing, gift buying at stores, and the thought of snow on the way.
With the winter holidays approaching, the familiar question returns—will it be a white Christmas? Before looking at the forecast, let's establish what officially constitutes a white Christmas.
A white Christmas is defined as having at least 1 inch of snow on the ground at 7 a.m. local time on Christmas Day. This is called snow depth, the combined total depth of both the old and new snow on the ground.
Chief meteorologist Rob Haswell and I were talking in the office about the predicted ‘super’ El Niño for this winter and how it will likely be a green Christmas across southeast Wisconsin.
Temperature outlook
Big picture view:
The Climate Prediction Center is forecasting the seasonal outlook for November, December, and January to have higher chances of above-average temperatures across the entire state of Wisconsin.
While cooler days and snow are still possible, the warmer temperatures will likely cut down on snow totals heading into the holiday season.
Chances of a white Christmas this winter?
Local perspective:
During the 30-year climate period 1991-2020, Milwaukee has a 43% of experiencing a white Christmas. However, we are currently in a very strong El Niño, and NOAA predicts that it will only strengthen heading into the winter and early spring.
That means that Wisconsin is favored to have a warmer winter ahead, which typically cuts down snow totals for the season.
But since this El Niño could be the strongest or one of the strongest on record, that cuts the chances down drastically.
During very strong El Niños, Milwaukee has only had a white Christmas 25% of the time.
So don't plan on the typical winter wonderland outside, it may be a green Christmas overall. If we are on Mother Nature's nice list, we may get lucky.
The Source: Information in this story is from the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, Climate Prediction Center, and the FOX6 Weather Experts.